There’s no way else to put it: Tuesday’s elections are the most crucial midterms in decades. As the president himself said, Trump and his agenda are on the ballot. It is truly a referendum on two fundamentally opposed visions of America. There will be a lot to follow on Election Night, so here are a few big storylines I will be closely following.
- How well do Democrats perform in Obama-to-Trump districts?
Most attention in the race for the House has been on the Democrats making major gains in suburban, Romney-to-Clinton districts. But the more underrated storyline has been Democratic pickups in Obama-to-Trump districts. They are very likely to perform well in the suburbs, but watch out for a substantial overperformance in rural areas. Don’t be shocked to see some surprises for Democrats in Trump-friendly areas. If this happens, Democrats will be well on their way to gain 40 or more seats.
- Immigration vs. Healthcare: Which message wins?
In the closing stages of the midterms, the competing messages for both parties couldn’t be more stark. On one side, you have Trump and the GOP running on, let’s be honest, a racist, conspiratorial campaign drumming up their base on fears about the migrant caravan, George Soros and leftist mobs. On the other side, Democrats are running on a positive, policy-centered (and surprisingly not fixated on the president) campaign emphasizing healthcare issues, ranging from protecting people with pre-existing conditions to supporting Medicare for All. We shall see on Tuesday which of these messages resonates more with the American people. But to be sure, whatever the result, expect Republicans to keep pushing an anti-immigrant, xenophobic message in the face of unpopular positions on taxes and healthcare.
- Record-breaking turnout?
Turnout has already been huge in states all across the country. Just look at the massive early vote totals compared to this point in 2014. By all accounts, this election could break records for turnout for a midterm. Conventional wisdom suggests this benefits Democrats, though high turnout could benefit Republicans in some of the Senate races being fought in red states. I am especially interested in the turnout among young voters which is notoriously low in midterms. But that likely will not continue this year given the significant uptick in turnout already. There’s a legitimate chance polls could be underrating Democrats and missing higher turnout among young people, African-Americans, Latinos and new voters.
- Can Beto really pull it off?
The Texas Senate race has been by far the most hyped Senate contest I can remember. In Beto O’Rourke, Democrats have their best chance in years to win a statewide election in Texas. Though Ted Cruz is the favorite here, but the race is going to be a lot closer than polls suggest. Win or lose, Beto’s campaign is a model for Democrats to follow in the future — a people-centered campaign traversing every corner of the state powered by unprecedented fundraising from small, individual donations.
- Will fundraising make a difference?
The fundraising for this midterm cycle has been unprecedented, especially on the Democratic side. Democrats in House and Senate contests have been raising crazy amounts of money, even in likely Republican areas. This has had the effect of putting a high number Republican-controlled seats in play. The huge fundraising edge Democrats boast has forced some rarely-challenged Republican incumbents on the defensive. Democrats might not win too many of these seats, but a lot will be closer than they should. It wouldn’t be surprising if they win a couple seats in under-the-radar elections.
- Andrew Gillum and Stacey Abrams: Democrats of the future?
In Florida and Georgia, Gillum and Abrams, in their respective gubernatorial races, have quickly become rising stars in the Democratic Party. Both candidates represent the future of the party: progressive candidates of color speaking directly to the economic and social concerns of voters across racial, ethnic and religious lines. They have the ability to speak credibly to the material interests of white, working-class people and working-class people of color alike. Equally important, they deliver a positive message on racial justice issues that connect to black, Latino and Asian voters. Finally, they boast the political skills and energy to excite voters. Both elections will go down to the wire, though Gillum is the favorite in Florida.
- A Midwest reversal?
Trump’s performance in the Midwest in 2016 was thought to be a political shakeup in the electoral map. But after winning five Midwestern states, the president’s approval has soured dramatically. Now, Democrats are poised to win big in the Midwest. Democratic Senate candidates in Minnesota, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan are favored to win comfortably. Democrats are also likely to flip the governor’s mansions in Illinois and Michigan, and they also have a chance to do so in Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio — though each race will be close. This would be a remarkable reversal from just two years ago. Many candidates in these races (Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin and Ohio’s Sherrod Brown, in particular) are running explicitly progressive, populist campaigns, speaking to the potential of this message to have broad support across the Midwest and Rust Belt.
- A win for voting rights?
A lot of the runup to the midterms has focused on voter suppression efforts in Georgia and North Dakota. This has left many afraid that these efforts could sway elections in key states. But lower on the ballot, this has become an election where voting rights are at stake. There is no other ballot measure in this election than Amendment 4 in Florida, which, if approved, would restore the voting rights for 1.6 million formerly incarcerated for felony convictions. In a time when voting rights are under constant assault, this is monumental for democracy and criminal justice reform. Many states are also voting to establish independent redistricting commissions to fight partisan gerrymandering, and others are voting to expand pro-voting policies like automatic voter registration.
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So sit tight, grab a drink and get ready for a long night. Or an excruciating few weeks waiting for the results out of California and a bunch of recounts.